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Beware a spike in the US dollar

English translation German translation - Deutsche Übersetzung French translation - Traduction française Italian translation - Traduzione italiana Spanish translation - Traducción española Portuguese translation - Tradução portuguese Chinese translation - 中国翻译 Japanese translation - 日本翻訳 Korean translation - 한국 번역 Arabic translation - الترجمه العربيه

 

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Author: Slipstream Trader Murray Dawes


"Here's a bigger warning for Aussie investors," says Murray. "One of the main risks at the moment is a bounce in the US dollar index."

Why is a rally in the U.S. dollar a problem for you?

"This could lead to commodity weakness and stock market weakness here in Australia. A strong dollar means weaker commodities, and vice versa. Combined with the global sentiment that this year's rally may be peaking, a U.S. dollar spike is a worry. I still expect the dollar to weaken in the longer term. But we may be witnessing a short squeeze which could shake a lot of traders out of their positions in gold, oil etc and hurt our recovering resources sector."

Take a look at this chart to see why Murray is fairly sure a major dollar spike is on the cards...

Dollar Spike Move Imminent

http://www.portphillippublishing.com.au/images/20091029sla3.jpg

This is a chart of the US Dollar index going back to 1985. You can see quite clearly that the 10 week moving average crossing over the 35 week moving average has been a very good indicator of the trend. There are only a few instances over that whole time period where this indicator gave a false signal.

"It is this indicator I will be watching like a hawk over the next few days," Murray reckons.

"If it tells us the Greenback is ready to rally, I believe this would lead to weakness in commodities and stocks here in Australia... and create a 'tipping point' for the rally in stocks that started in March."

The rally would tip over. In fact it may have already started...

So what should you do?

Here's some free advice: if you're a long-term investor only, I would remain wary of jumping into any new long positions without knowing just what the risk is.

If you own certain stocks that have done well this year, you should look at how exposed they might be to a market correction. Consider last year's massive sell-off as a worst case scenario. You should strongly consider taking profits or using a trailing-stop to exit profitable positions. And after that...

It's our opinion that the short side will be where money is made (and saved) between now and the end of the year.

At the very least, we're going to see a sharp upswing in volatility.

If you hate risk and playing volatility for profit sounds like a silly idea to you, then I'd consider taking a long, hard look at your current portfolio. Again, you should even think about taking some gains out of the game.

 

From The Daily Reckoning Australia


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